Hagerty’s Market Rating fell to 58.28 in January 2026, its lowest reading in nearly fifteen years, and it was still near that level in July. Since its 2022 peak the rating has declined in 37 of 43 months. Every one of those facts will be presented to you this year as a buying opportunity. For most people reading this, it is not one — and the reason is that a falling index is not the same thing as a cheap car.
The short version
- The Hagerty Market Rating reached 58.28 in January 2026, reported as the lowest in nearly fifteen years.
- It has fallen in 37 of the 43 months since its summer 2022 peak.
- A reading between 50 and 60 is described by Hagerty as flat-market territory — not a crash.
- The weakness is in the middle of the market. The very top has held, which is why headline auction records keep appearing alongside a falling index.
- A collector car bought abroad still meets your destination’s tax and registration regime in full. The index does not reduce that.
What the index actually says
58.28
Hagerty Market Rating, January 2026
37 of 43
Months of decline since the 2022 peak
50–60
Hagerty's flat-market band
The Market Rating is a composite. It is not a price. A reading of 58.28 is inside the band Hagerty itself describes as a flat market, which is a materially different statement from a market in decline — even though the direction of travel over three years has plainly been downward.
The distinction matters because the two claims lead to opposite behaviour. “Values have fallen a long way and are now flat” argues for patience. “Values are collapsing” argues for catching a bottom. The second is the framing that sells cars, and it is not what the number says.
A flat market and a falling market require different decisions. Most of the coverage runs them together.
Strong top, soft middle
The apparent contradiction of 2026 — record individual results alongside a fifteen-year-low index — resolves once you separate the segments. A handful of exceptional cars with unrepeatable histories continue to find buyers at any level, because the people bidding on them are not price-sensitive. The broad middle, where most enthusiasts actually transact, has been cooling for three years.
Which means a headline is almost useless as a signal for the car you are actually considering. The eight-figure result and the index are describing different markets that happen to share a hobby.
Why an index fall does not reach your driveway
This is the part that matters to an importer, and it is arithmetic rather than opinion. Suppose a car’s value falls 10%. What proportion of your total outlay does that 10% actually touch?
A 10% fall in a car's value, on a landed import
Illustrative structure only. No destination tax rate is asserted.
The freight does not fall. The marine cover does not fall. And in the markets where the tax hurts most, the tax does not fall either, because it is assessed on the authority’s own valuation rather than on your invoice. Ireland charges VRT on Revenue’s open market selling price. Kenya derives an assessed value from a published schedule. Hong Kong applies first registration tax on the Customs and Excise Department’s determination.
This is the sentence to remember
A cheap purchase does not proportionally reduce a tax charged on someone else’s valuation. If your destination assesses on its own figure, a soft market gives you a discount on the smaller half of the bill and nothing on the larger half.
The case for not buying
We import cars for a living, so read the next four points knowing that every one of them costs us business.
- A flat market has no urgency in it. If the index has moved sideways in a 50–60 band, there is no window closing. Anyone telling you to move before the bottom passes is describing a market shape the data does not show.
- Falling values are a warning about exit, not an invitation at entry. If the segment has declined in 37 of 43 months, the honest planning assumption is that it may decline again while you own the car. Buy it because you want it, not because you expect to sell it.
- Condition risk rises in a soft market. When values fall, deferred maintenance rises, because owners stop spending on cars that are not appreciating. The cheap car in a weak market is disproportionately likely to be the neglected one. Our guide to UK history checks covers what a check does and does not reveal.
- Registration is the failure mode, not price. The thing that ruins a classic import is not overpaying by 10%. It is a car that cannot be registered, or that needs an individual approval nobody costed. Settle admissibility before you settle on a car.
When it is a genuine opportunity
There is a real case, and it is narrow. If you want a specific car, you intend to keep it, you have confirmed your destination will register it, and the landed figure works at today’s number rather than at a number you are hoping for — then a flat market is a perfectly good time to buy, because you are not relying on the market for anything.
That is a different sentence from “values are down, buy now” and it produces different behaviour.
On the record
- Hagerty reported a Market Rating of 58.28 in January 2026, described as the lowest in nearly fifteen years.
- Hagerty reported the rating still near a fifteen-year low in July 2026.
- Hagerty describes a reading between 50 and 60 as flat-market territory.
- The rating has declined in 37 of the 43 months following its summer 2022 peak.
Still not established
- The Market Rating’s current level as at September 2026. We could not read a September figure and are not estimating one.
- Segment-level index values. The Market Rating is a composite and does not tell you what any individual model did.
- Whether the market has found a floor. Hagerty’s own July language was that it appeared to be settling into one, which is an observation rather than a call.
Does this apply to you?
| If you are… | What this means |
|---|---|
| Buying a classic to keep | A reasonable time to buy, on the car's merits. Confirm registration first. |
| Buying a classic as an investment | The index has fallen in 37 of 43 months. Treat any appreciation case with real scepticism. |
| A dealer holding classic stock | Days-to-turn is the risk, not margin. Soft middle-market demand lengthens the sale. |
| Importing a modern used car | None of this applies. Different market, different drivers. |
Assessment against Hagerty's published Market Rating commentary. Checked 10 September 2026.
Move now or wait?
Wait, unless you want the specific car. That is the whole recommendation and we are not going to dress it up. A flat market by definition does not reward speed, and the costs that do not fall with the index — freight, clearance, and a registration tax assessed on somebody else’s valuation — are the same in January as in September.
Index values are published by Hagerty and are subject to revision. Figures above reflect Hagerty’s published commentary as reported and were checked on 10 September 2026. Nothing in this article is a valuation or investment advice, and vehicle values can fall as well as rise.
Want the registration question answered before the car question?
We confirm what a destination will and will not register before anyone spends money, then quote one landed figure to your port. Send us the car and the country: start here. For Ireland, our import cost calculator shows how VRT is actually assessed.
Sources
- Hagerty Collector Car Market Rating Sinks to 15-Year Low — Hagerty
- Monthly Hagerty Market Report: July 2026 — Hagerty
- The 2026 Collector Car Market Has a Strong Top End, But a Soft Underbelly — Hagerty
- Hagerty Market Rating Falls to Lowest Level in Nearly 15 Years as Collector Car Values Continue to Slide — Yahoo Finance