Japan exported roughly 1.7 million used vehicles in 2025, up 9.1% and a third consecutive record. The yen is trading near its weakest level since 1986. Both of those facts sound like good news if you buy cars in Japan. The third fact — that constant-quality auction prices are up about 15% in yen — is the one that decides how much of the currency advantage you actually keep.
The short version
- Japanese used vehicle exports hit a record ≈1.7 million units, up 9.1% year on year — the third annual record in a row.
- The yen traded around ¥161–162 to the US dollar in late June 2026, close to its weakest since 1986.
- Constant-quality auction prices are up roughly 15% in yen year on year — the market is absorbing part of the currency gain.
- Headline average prices overstate the move: a richer mix of high-grade cars flatters the average, with monthly constant-quality inflation nearer 1.7%.
- Top destinations include Russia, Tanzania, the UAE, New Zealand and South Africa. You are bidding against all of them.
The numbers
1.7m
Used vehicles exported
+9.1%
Year on year
3rd
Consecutive record year
Japan’s used vehicle export trade has been setting records for three years running. The destination list explains why: buyers across Africa, the CIS region, South Asia and the Pacific are all competing for the same well-maintained, reliably-documented stock, and almost none of them have a domestic alternative that matches it on condition per pound.
| Destination | Approximate volume | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | ≈ 46,105 units | Largest single destination |
| African markets (combined) | ≈ 136,000 units | Fastest-growing bloc |
| Tanzania | Top five | Major African entry point |
| UAE | Top five | Re-export hub as well as end market |
| New Zealand | Top five | Direct competitor for the same grades |
| South Africa | Top five | Right-hand drive, similar buying criteria |
Volumes as reported in trade coverage of the record export year. Figures are indicative.
What the yen is doing
As of late June 2026 the yen sat around ¥161–162 to the US dollar, close to its weakest level in four decades. For anyone earning in dollars, euro or sterling, that is a material discount on the same car.
The commonly-quoted framing is that an exchange rate near 150 to the dollar makes Japanese used cars roughly 30% cheaper for overseas importers than they would be at historically normal rates. At 161 the arithmetic is more favourable still — on the currency leg alone.
The exchange rate is a discount on the price. It is not a discount on the car.
Auction prices: the real read
Here is where most reporting goes wrong. Average auction prices in Japan have risen sharply, and it is tempting to read that as pure inflation. It is not.
Two different numbers, frequently conflated
- Average price — the mean hammer across everything that sold. This rises when the mix improves: more high-grade cars offered, fewer cheap and rough ones. It tells you about the catalogue, not the market.
- Constant-quality price — what the same car, at the same grade, would fetch now versus a year ago. This is the only figure that answers “has it got more expensive”.
On a constant-quality basis, prices are up roughly 15% in yen year on year. But month-to-month constant-quality inflation has run far lower — closer to 1.7% in a recent month — with the gap between that and the headline average explained entirely by the improving mix.
What this means at the bidding screen
If your reference point is what you paid for a similar car last year, expect to pay meaningfully more in yen — and to still be ahead once the exchange rate is applied. If your reference point is a published average price, you are probably comparing a better car to a worse one and drawing the wrong conclusion.
Who you are bidding against
Record export volume does not mean an easier hall. It means more bidders chasing the same desirable lots. A grade 4 or 4.5 car with a clean auction sheet is wanted simultaneously by a Kenyan importer, a New Zealand dealer, a Russian trader and you — and several of them have cost structures that let them bid past the point where the car makes sense for a European buyer paying registration tax on arrival.
This is the practical case for reading the auction sheet properly rather than the photographs. Grade, inspection notes and the repair map are what separate the car worth stretching for from the one that merely photographs well. We cover the system in detail in Japanese auction grades explained.
How long the window stays open
Nobody sensible forecasts currency. What can be said is what each leg of the trade currently contributes, and which of them is most likely to move.
| Factor | Current direction | Effect on your cost | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yen exchange rate | Near four-decade weakness | Strongly favourable | Volatile — can reverse quickly |
| Yen auction prices | Up ≈15% constant-quality YoY | Unfavourable | Sticky — driven by export demand |
| Supply volume | Record exports, third year | Neutral to favourable | Stable |
| Competing demand | Broad and rising | Unfavourable | Structural |
| Destination tax (e.g. VRT) | Set by your government | Fixed cost on arrival | Policy-dependent |
The currency leg is the most favourable and the least reliable. Build your model so it survives the yen strengthening.
The honest summary: the trade is genuinely attractive right now, and the most attractive component of it is the one you have least control over. If a purchase only works at ¥161 and fails at ¥140, it is a currency bet with a car attached rather than a sound acquisition.
What to actually do about it
- Set your walk-away number in your own currency, landed and registered, before the lot opens.
- Stress-test it at a materially stronger yen. If it only works at today’s rate, size the position accordingly.
- Compare against alternative source markets rather than assuming Japan wins — our New Zealand versus Japan comparison exists because it frequently does not.
- Remember that registration tax on arrival is unaffected by what you paid. A cheaper purchase does not proportionally reduce your total.
Buying from Japan this year?
We bid in Japanese auctions every week and quote the full landed cost — car, shipping, duty, VAT and registration tax — before anyone commits. Start with how to buy at a Japanese auction, price it with the import cost calculator, then tell us what you want.
Sources
- Japan's once-affordable used cars threatened by soaring prices, weak yen — Nikkei Asia
- Japan car auction prices July 2026: insider costs and deals — Japanese Car Trade
- Is the weak yen bonus over? A deep dive into used car exports — Provide Cars
- Japan used car price index — importer's guide — Provide Cars